Hello from Brussels tonight and for the rest of the week. Not much fun in Brussels, I mean I am sure there is fun to be had, but my work schedule has me somewhat busy so I cant wait until the local hooligans come out to play around midnight. Dinner at a nearly empty restaurant, right next to several other "parties of one" has become the norm on this trip. You can tell the foreigners, 7PM, steak, vegetable, glass of wine or beer, dead give away. So anyway, Brussels seems a little undeserving of being the seat of the EU, there are so many beautiful stately places in Europe, its interesting this is her flagship. Perhaps I am quick to judge, but it just hasnt impressed me like the other places have. I did do three countries today, Germany, The Netherlands, and Belgium. Thanks to my new friends at the BDB who were kind enough to let me ride a long. They really made the last two days very nice, for that I am most grateful.
So Derby week, time to get serious. Most of you following this blog know I am a pretty avid thoroughbred enthusiast. We'll you can throw it all out the window come Derby time, what skill may gain, luck exceeds ten fold. So I encourage you to pick by number, color, name, form, or whatever suits your fancy, it all can work Derby Day! Not since 2002-2003 have I had legitimate back to back Derby winners with War Emblem and Funny Cide respectively. When I say legitimate, that means I didnt have wagers covering half the entries where I could say "Yeah, I had it" while i threw 15 losing tickets on the ground. In the derby dont hedge a large amount of bets, just put a few dollars on the nose of your choice and a couple more on the odd ball, its cheaper, just as fun, and has the same or better opportunity of cashing. Its the hardest race in the world to handicap. You dont need the thrill of betting a couple hundred in the Derby, if hearing My Old Kentucky Home and seeing 20 horses break from the gate isnt thrilling enough, I am sure there is ice skating or Emeril on another channel.
So Ill preface with I wont have my selections until the morning of the Derby. But lets try to learn from my successes, even though its hard to calculate my rationale considering I picked War Emblem and Funny Cide in the heart of my college romp. But then again, at that time i had the time and creative thought to come up with the little less logical contender. Two dollar win bets on each combined for over $70 and it certainly gave me the extra funds necessary for my post finals celebrations. So lets put some things together, I am sure we could all use a little extra gas money.
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The least meaningful photo
of Bob Baffert's career. |
Midnight Interlude - Some colts that can get on the lead sometimes stay there. Thats what I thought about War Emblem. Not always the best play, but it worked 2002, and you just never know. Being in front at least makes the other horses come after you. One has to like how Interlude won the SA Derby on the dirt, and he can go straight forward or can come from just off the pace. Not to mention the combo of Bob Baffert and Victor Espinosa, who you may or may not know was the same tandem that got War Emblem to the winners circle. When its all said and done, I say this contender will be over bet considering Baffert and he's exiting a career best in a Grade I prep, but I couldnt blame the logic of a live Bob Baffert front runner. Also worth mentioning that
Soldat has major ability to pull off a War Emblem win and is actually faster than Midnight Interlude.
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| #3 is not what we are going for... |
Shackleford - Sometimes its not fun to bet the favorite. So I had to pass on Empire Maker in 2003 despite loving everything about the colt. Still, Empire Maker is one of my favorite colts of all time. Juddmonte, Frankel, Jerry D Bailey, Unbridled, what a dream!! Well thats what everyone else thought too, I cant bet a 3 year old horse at 5/2 in a field of 20 unless I own it. So you must look elsewhere, but where? Look no further than than the second best horse in the favorites last prep race. Thats the mindset I had that year. In 2003 Funny Cide ran a very game second to Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial. Well unless you skipped to this line of the blog, you know who showed up on the first Saturday on May. Any gambler will tell you only one horse wins a race, but no seasoned gambler will tell you the best bet is always on the best horse. So despite no Empire Maker presence this year, Dialed In will be a soft favorite and should be. Zito and Julien, not too shabby. However, he just barely nipped Shackleford in the Florida Derby. If you can ignore Uncle Mo and think Dialed In is dominate, which the writer strongly advises against, then I say Shackleford fits the Funny Cide billing. At the very least, this is a colt that will give you a big price with a potential Kentucky Derby winning punch.
Well, this was pretty random. But hey, it was a good conversation to have the past 10 minutes with myself. It may be gibberish to most of you, but hey if you can translate any of it, you may impress the casual pony fan at a Derby party. Regardless, good luck with your selections, everyone needs it...
